Former Russian President Predicts U.S. Civil War in 2023

Former president and current Deputy Chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, tweeted a series of ten predictions for 2023. Among his predictions are a U.S. civil war, oil prices reaching $150, Asia becoming the primary financial hub, and the Bretton Woods system collapsing. 

The ten predictions are: 

1.  Oil price jumps to $150. 

2.  U.K. rejoins E.U.

3.  E.U. collapses after the U.K. returns, leading to a collapse of the Euro. The Euro usage will cease.

4.  Poland and Hungary will occupy the western regions of formerly existing Ukraine.

5.  The Fourth Reich will emerge.

6.  War will break out between France and the Fourth Reich dividing Europe.

7.  Northern Ireland will separate from the U.K. and join the Republic of Ireland.

8.  Civil war will break out in the U.S., and Texas and California will become independent states. Elon Musk will become president of some states.

9.  All the largest stock markets will leave U.S. and Europe and move to Asia.

10. The Bretton Woods system will collapse. The Euro and Dollar will cease as reserve  currencies, and C.B.D.C.s will be the currency instead.

Most of the predictions are absurd and reasonably easy to dismiss. However, absurdity may be the point in hiding the truth of the predictions Russia means. Medvedev's statement needs to be clarified. Is he admitting his predictions will contribute to absurdity, clear up the absurdity, or is he saying something different? 

After the last two years, it is wiser to believe all crazy things are possible. However, possible doesn’t mean probable. It is implausible that the stock markets will move to Asia. The probability of a total stock market moving to Asia is as close to zero percent as possible. The U.S. is the largest economy and will remain so for quite some time, despite China's rapid growth. Most American companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will not abandon the NYSE for the Shanghai or Toyko exchanges. It is too expensive, impractical, time-consuming, and a terrible tax headache.

The creation of the Fourth Reich and subsequent war is also beyond absurd. The U.S. has several operational bases in Germany. Although Germany is our ally now, if the need arose, the U.S. has the personnel and weapon capability to turn Germany into a parking lot from within their borders. Hungary and Poland are NATO members. Is NATO going to sanction the occupation of Ukraine after spending $100's billion to keep Russia from occupying Ukraine? At least six of the ten predictions are "cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs," but few don't seem too farfetched. 

The two most probable predictions are #1 and #10, which are the two predictions Russia can directly influence. Predictions 1 and 10 connect to similar developments that are already in motion. Predicting $150 oil may sound crazy, but data analytics giant S&P Global told CNBC oil could reach $121 in 2023 if China solves covid. S&P Global’s prediction would be a 55% increase from current prices. It wouldn’t take much to keep oil climbing to $150. What could that look like?

Russia is the third largest oil producer and a member of OPEC+. About 12% of the global oil reserves are in Russia, and Europe needs help to meet its energy needs. On December 5, a European trade embargo on crude oil took effect. On February 5, a total trade embargo of all Russian oil products will go into effect, making price squeezes easier and likely more frequent. European politicians will do much doublespeak and make exemptions about Russian oil products. As soon as the inevitable political backpedal happens, Russia will have room to negotiate oil prices and sanction relief. However, the oil price will only move a little if OPEC doesn't get involved.

Relations between the U.S. and OPEC have soured after prominent Democrats said OPEC’s October production reduction was openly siding with Russia. Shortly after, President Biden vowed consequences for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia responded by lowering oil prices in Asia while raising them in Europe. Also, a month later, Saudi Arabia signed $50 billion in new security, investment, and energy contracts with China.

As we do our political calculus deciding which way the winds are blowing, remember that Saudi Arabia has officially applied to join the BRICS. The higher the oil price, the more likely nations will soften their stances on Russia. If raising oil prices will improve Saudi Arabia's application for the BRICS, it isn't reasonable to think they wouldn't do it. Pricing disparities are a real possibility if the world fractures into West and East economies. $150 oil is possible if Russia can negotiate sanction relief at that price. However, sanction relief due to price pressure is a direct challenge to the S.W.I.F.T. banking system, which is central to the hegemony of the Dollar.

Russia has repeatedly said the goal of the BRICS nations is to create a basket of commodity-backed currencies to compete against the Dollar as the international reserve currency. In other words, Russia wants the Bretton Woods system to collapse or prediction number 10 to come to fruition. When President Nixon removed the gold standard, the Bretton Woods system became null and void. However, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia quickly came to terms with the Petrodollar agreement keeping the oil trade in Dollars. The Petrodollar agreement supports the U.S. Dollar as the primary reserve currency and the world entrenched in the Bretton Woods agreement without gold as the anchor.

No matter how one feels about Russia, it is foolish to underestimate them or think they don’t have a plan. Medvedev’s tweet is not from someone airing crazy thoughts. He is a former president and the current head of their security council. His tweet was planned at the highest levels of government with a desired response. The riddle to solve is what is the desired response is and who the intended audience. 

Russia may be mocking us with hyperbole. Perhaps, the tweet was wishful thinking to throw the ideas into the media to create uncertainty. However, it is also possible that it is less misdirection than code to a secret audience. It wouldn't be the first time Russia gave deliberate misdirection. Remember when Russia threatened nuclear war against any country offering aid to Ukraine, which gave the world pause for the first couple of days of the conflict ?

Looking at the predictions as a whole rather than the specifics, you will find a map of Russia's plans. First, the oil will skyrocket. Problems in Europe will lead to a collapse of the Euro. The economic collapse will splinter Europe. Misguided American entanglement will create domestic anger and hostility, leading to further division and possibly violence. The markets will panic. The end game is the Dollar's destruction as the reserve currency, and C.B.D.C.s are the future. Russia's predictions don't seem so crazy when the crazy is in plain English.

Russia wants a gold-backed currency. The best thing for a commodity-backed currency is high market prices for the commodity. If Russia is even partially successful, the gold price will go up. Although most of the predictions are absurd, the underlying ideas behind them are not. There is much uncertainty, and sides are being chosen. OPEC's loyalties are with China and Russia. The decision to buy gold is simple. Gold is a bad idea if you think the Dollar will get stronger in 2023. However, if you think Russia is warning that the Dollar's days are numbered, buying gold is a no-brainer.

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