Weekly Gold Price Movement
With the first days of August underway, physical gold is trading around $3,360–$3,400 per ounce, according to Reuters and Barron’s. On August 1, gold surged 1.6% to $3,400/oz as stocks fell in response to weak U.S. jobs data and renewed tariff tensions.
Headlines Shaping Gold's Momentum
The catalyst for last week’s gold rally came on July 31, when U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by only 73,000 jobs, far below expectations, alongside significant downward revisions to May and June figures. This renewed market belief in a September Federal Reserve rate cut—with odds rising above 80%—helped push gold up over 2%, before profit-taking settled prices into the low‑$3,360 range.
Among analyst voices, Citi Group revised its 3‑month gold forecast to $3,300–$3,600/oz, targeting $3,500, citing soft economic data, inflation persistence, a weak U.S. dollar, and geopolitical risk.
Recent data from the World Gold Council shows that although central bank gold buying slowed in Q2 (166 mt vs. 243 mt in Q1), 95% of banks plan further purchases within 12 months. Meanwhile, investment demand soared by 78% year-over-year—ETF flows, coins, and bars supporting overall demand despite weak jewelry sales in China and India.
The Debt Factor: Rising National Debt and Gold’s Role as a Hedge
U.S. federal debt stands at approximately $36.5 trillion as of March 2025, up sharply from $34.4 trillion in 2024, with interest servicing costs at record levels. Experts increasingly highlight that soaring debt burdens—projected to reach 130% of GDP by 2034—are fostering systemic fiscal risk. The World Gold Council and other analysts note that rising Treasury-swap yield spreads reflect market concerns about unsustainable budgetary policy, which in turn correlates with upward pressure on gold prices.
Kitco recently emphasized that trillions in new U.S. debt will push gold prices higher, even absent a formal crisis, as investors seek alternatives to risk-laden sovereign instruments. Furthermore, prominent investors like Ray Dalio have warned of a “debt doom loop” in countries like the UK and the U.S., recommending allocation into gold as a buffer.
Where Gold Stands Now
Technical support in the $3,342–$3,353/oz range appears to be holding, limiting downside amid short-term profit-taking. On the sentiment front, a Reuters poll of 40 analysts increased its median 2025 gold forecast to $3,220/oz, with some seeing potential for $4,000/oz if U.S. fiscal imbalance worsens.
Gold’s rally above $3,400 per ounce reflects a convergence of weak labor figures, Fed rate cut expectations, elevated U.S. debt levels, and safe-haven demand. With Citi targeting $3,500/oz and broader forecasts stretching toward $4,000, gold remains a critical hedge in portfolios facing geopolitical uncertainty and fiscal stress.
Investors should stay attuned to federal fiscal developments, inflation releases, and central bank activity—any of which could accelerate or temper gold’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.
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byUnited States Gold Bureau