Metals Minute 149: Jobs Report, Higher Interest Rates, and Gold
Monster job numbers were reported this morning, with the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. Unfortunately, however, the labor participation rate also dropped. So while the unemployment rate of 3.5% ties the pre-pandemic rate as the lowest in decades, a smaller percentage of working-age people than expected (62.3%) are working.
Earlier analysis has shown that many Americans work multiple jobs, including full-time ones. This partially explains wage growth numbers, as fewer people have made themselves available to work.
The market and economists now project a 92% chance that interest rates will rise another 0.75% in November. This is already taking a toll on the stock and bond market, with some expecting to see mortgage rates rise to 8% by year-end. This will also put further pressure on real estate prices as the amount people can borrow decreases.
Across Europe, people are already burning trash in their homes to keep warm, and Great Britain is expecting winter power outages of up to 3 hours. These are conditions that favor higher energy and precious metals prices. Less energy will be available for mining/refining, which supports refined metals prices.