We have been inundated with information this week, but first, a look at the numbers. For the week, gold is flat at $1,712, silver is up 7.6% to $19.83, platinum is up 4.9% to $919, and palladium is 6.25% higher at $2,174. Since a year ago, gold is down 5%, silver is down 16.9%, platinum is 3.1% lower, and palladium bucks the trend, up 9.3%. YTD, the lowest performing metal (silver) at -13.5%, outperforms stock and bond indexes. The highest performer YTD is palladium, +18.6%.
Inflation, inflation, inflation. No longer a question of “if” or “when”; today, the only question is “for how long?” The answer is complicated, not in terms of guessing the timing, but in experiencing the pain necessary to bring inflation back down. The only way to do it is to induce a “recession”, by slowing down the economy. As you may recall, inflation + recession = stagflation, which typically means precious metals will be among the best performing assets. If this year indicates the future, the trend of precious metals outperformance will likely continue. The 2023 COLA will likely be 8.5% - 8.9%.