Gold prices are $2,500 an ounce this Tuesday morning, up slightly from $2,495 at the start of last week.

The U.S. economy is facing a potential recession, as multiple negative employment figures from last week suggest. Over the past 12 months, more than 1.3 million native-born U.S. workers have lost their jobs, a situation that could have far-reaching implications. In a further blow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced in August that 818,000 reported jobs created over the previous year were, in fact, not created. This correction, accounting for 30% of all nonfarm payroll jobs reported (April 2023 to March 2024), marks the most substantial error in U.S. job reporting since 2009.

The goal of "the longer-run normal rate of unemployment was 4.4 percent" is now more vague after the revision: "The maximum level of employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal that is not directly measurable and changes over time owing largely to nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. These factors may change over time and may not be directly measurable."

While the increasing U.S. unemployment numbers indicate the need for Fed rate cuts, updated inflation numbers will be reported this week and may also guide the Fed's upcoming interest rate decisions.

It's important to note that gold has historically performed better in a falling-rate environment than a rising-rate one. This knowledge can provide confidence and a sense of control in navigating the current market conditions.