The big decline in equities market and even bigger crash in bitcoin,
may seem to have been halted in its tracks - at least temporarily -
but caveat emptor – buyer beware. Mega crashes can see bounces of
this nature which suck buyers back in, only for the downturns to
re-appear – sometimes even bigger than the initial crashes. We’re not
saying this will definitely happen, but the bargain hunter coming back
into the market now could have his/her fingers burnt, and should
proceed cautiously.
So-called safe haven investments like gold have been hit by the
equities upturn,and subsequent fall, but this has by no means been a
crash like that in the Dow, S&P and European markets. The latter have
fallen again sharply again after a one-day initial recovery and it
will be interesting to see if this perhaps more pessimistic approach
to the apparent price bounce will be continued.
Gold has been marked down too. There is a tendency to liquidate good
steady assets like gold rather than equities in the hope that the
latter will see a quick pick-up. After all gold has only dropped less
than 2% whereas U.S. equities have fallen around 9% so far and there’s
every prospect of the Dow falling further and faster, with the
occasional recovery blip. In reality, in our opinion, investors
should be taking their profits in equities and moving into safer
assets like gold to ride out whatever may be ahead. If equities do
make a sustainable recovery one can buy back in, but meantime an asset
like gold should act as a wealth preserver. It may fall, but in
percentage terms, as we have seen, equities could fall far faster and
further if the downturn continues. Many well qualified analysts and
commentators have been predicting a mega-crash in equities. If you
are caught in such then any built-up wealth will be in severe
jeopardy. Better safe than sorry!
And as for bitcoin, this has seen something of a recovery too and,
again in our opinion, the bitcoin price is even more vulnerable to a
further serious downturn than the equity markets. We’ve been
predicting a severe downturn for some time. and we suspect the
vulnerability here could see it fall to under $5,000 – or even to
considerably less erasing all its gains of the past year. It has been
shown to be extremely volatile on the way up. It could be equally
volatile on the way down. And as for all the other cryptocurrencies
which have been springing up their volatility on the downward track
could be even more severe.
I would remind investors of gold’s performance in 2008/9 during the
last big equities crash. It did indeed fall initially as investors
and institutions sold the precious metal to help preserve liquidity
as, in some cases, the only asset for which they could get what seemed
to be a fair price. Equities were being marked down by the minute.
Those who bought equities on the margin were being slaughtered
financially. Gold was the first major asset to come right and didn’t
fall nearly as much as equities (it lost around 18% at its nadir, but
had recovered from all its losses in about 6 months and went on to
climb to new heights in the next couple of years. But equities, as
represented by the Dow, fell around 50% and took over 5 years to
recover all their crash losses. True they also went on to new heights
but took yet another 5 years to do so!). We’re not saying this will
occur again, but it certainly could and historical lessons should be
learned. All serious equity crashes have tended to be more severe
than those caught up in them have tended to realise and all have seen
false recoveries which have seen investors climb back in thinking the
end to the fall had come about – only to lose their shirts in a
recurring downturn.
So what is the moral here? Gold may not be immune to being brought
down in a mega-equities crash, but does not tend to fall by nearly as
much and recovers far, far faster. If you’re going to put your trust
in anything, trust in gold. Call (800)775-3504 or visit /
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byLawrie Williams