Metals Minute 120: Metals Rally - A Brief Review

In the last two days, we have gold up 6%, silver up 7%, palladium up 5%, and platinum up over 1%, as markets try to digest the avalanche of data released this week. Today we will discuss the data in light of recent projections and the current realities taking shape.
 
We shared with you the warning that evidence for a recession would likely be provided this week, along with a new effort to redefine recession; both have occurred. Last week we suggested the 2022 low for gold and silver was likely near; it now appears to be in the rearview mirror. Our best guess for the interest rate increase was 0.75%, which it was.
 

One thing we didn’t foresee/mention was the neutral stance the Federal Reserve took during the policy speech Wednesday and the hotter inflation numbers for June revealed today. 
 
Redefining “inflation,” “recession,” or “stagflation” is not sufficient to keep the metals from recognizing the truth. A recession has traditionally meant two consecutive negative growth quarters, which we have had. Inflation is still a growing concern in an economy that is slowing - which is the traditional definition of “stagflation.”